Ardern very happy to be snubbed by best friends

New Zealand may have been snubbed in the formation of the new tripartite security pact between our closest friends, but it is a snub that Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is more than happy about.

If the New Zealand government had been asked, it would have declined. In that respect, it was good not to have been asked at all.

The new pact was announced with much fanfare on Thursday by US President Joe Biden, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and “that fellow Downunder” as Biden described Australia’s Scott Morrison in a senior moment.

Its first initiative is to supply Australia with a nuclearpowered submarine fleet, and with as much help as possible over the next 18 months to make the necessary decisions.

It has meant Australia cancelling a current contract with France to supply it with submarines, which has deeply upset France.

That contract was signed in 2016 after Australia cancelled a previous contract with Japan to supply it with submarines, and that deeply upset Japan.

The faffing around is about to stop with the AUKUS pact because China’s rapid military modernisation and ambition in the past five years has given the US and its close allies a sense of urgency.

The pact gives Britain is looking for to boost its global presence post-brexit. In a sense, it is the add-on to the close 70-year-old Anzus pact between Australia and the United States, which continued after New Zealand’s suspension for antinuclear policies.

Exactly what AUKUS will become is too soon to say.

It may remain just an agreement between three trusted friends to share the most modern defence technology and capability.

As such, there was certainly no reason to have included New Zealand at the outset. It is just too small a player to be in that sort of big league.

But it could evolve down the track into something with broader membership and more political entanglements or guarantees that could cause New Zealand to rethink.

Ardern over-egged the nuclear aspect of the pact, by suggesting it is anchored in the nuclear submarine deal and ipso facto that New Zealand would have no part of it.

New Zealand’s anti-nuclear laws have never precluded

defence arrangements with nuclear powers, only with the presence of nuclear weapons and nuclear power in New Zealand territory.

Morrison was quick to state that AUKUS would enhance, and not replace its existing network defence and security arrangements in Anzus, the Quad [US, Australia, Japan, and India], or the Five Eyes intelligence network [US, Britain, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand], or with Asean nations and “our dear Pacific family,” as he put it.

What is also unknown, and perhaps immeasurable, is whether the new security pact will make the region safer or not.

The aim is to counter-balance China the pre-eminent power in the region, and Australia and the US have ambitious spending plans to boost their defence capability in case of a possible conflict.

That could give China the incentive to become more assertive in its behaviour before they have a chance to get properly prepared.